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Branches and Sequels

Why It Matters

Operations rarely go exactly as planned. Pre-planned alternatives enable faster adaptation than planning from scratch under pressure.

The Key Move

During planning, ask: what could go differently than expected? What would we do in each case? After initial success, what's next? Pre-position resources and decisions for likely branches. Have sequels ready so success can be exploited.

Classic Application

Amphibious operations. Multiple beaches planned; decision on which to use made based on conditions. Success exploitation planned in advance so momentum isn't lost while planning next steps.

Surprising Application

Product launches. Branch: if reception is cold, what's plan B? If competitor responds, how do we adapt? Sequel: if launch succeeds, what's the expansion plan? Having these pre-planned enables faster response.

Failure Modes

  • So many branches that none are well-planned
  • No branches (single path dependence)
  • Success without sequel (victory not exploited)
  • Branches too rigid (don't cover actual contingencies)

Go Deeper

Military planning doctrine. Operational art literature.