Tools by Problem Type¶

Find tools based on what you're trying to accomplish. Each section lists relevant tools across multiple domains.

Evaluating Evidence & Claims¶

When you need to assess the strength of evidence or the validity of a claim.

Tool	Chapter	What it does
Prior-Likelihood-Posterior Decomposition	Bayesian Statistics	Separates prior belief from evidence strength from conclusion
Likelihood Ratio Thinking	Bayesian Statistics	Quantifies how diagnostic evidence is
Base Rate Anchoring	Bayesian Statistics	Starts from population frequencies before individuating
Diagnostic vs. Supportive Evidence	Intelligence Analysis	Distinguishes evidence that rules out alternatives
Structured Source Evaluation	Intelligence Analysis	Systematically assesses source credibility

When you must act without complete information.

Tool	Chapter	What it does
Expected Value Decomposition	Bayesian Statistics	Separates outcomes, probabilities, and utilities
Information Value Calculation	Bayesian Statistics	Determines if gathering more info is worth it
Rule Out the Worst First	Emergency Medicine	Prioritizes excluding catastrophic possibilities
Threshold-Based Decision Rules	Emergency Medicine	Creates clear action triggers
Ensemble Thinking	Meteorology	Reasons across multiple models/scenarios

When you need to analyze a failure, error, or unexpected outcome.

Tool	Chapter	What it does
Multiple Necessary Conditions	Accident Investigation	Identifies all factors that had to align
Hindsight Bias Correction	Accident Investigation	Reconstructs pre-outcome decision context
Contributing Factor Chains	Accident Investigation	Traces temporal unfolding of failure
Swiss Cheese Model Analysis	Accident Investigation	Checks defense layer independence
Systemic Versus Individual Attribution	Accident Investigation	Determines if failure is personal or structural

When you need to influence others or reach agreement.

Tool	Chapter	What it does
Costly Signal Recognition	Game Theory (Signaling)	Makes commitments credible through costly signals
Commitment Device Identification	Game Theory (Signaling)	Creates binding constraints on future behavior
Social Proof Dependency Recognition	Social Psychology	Leverages conformity and group behavior
Reference Point Manipulation Detection	Social Psychology	Understands how presentation shapes perception

When you want to acquire expertise efficiently.

Tool	Chapter	What it does
Deliberate Practice Identification	Expertise Studies	Distinguishes effective practice from time-on-task
Chunking Analysis	Expertise Studies	Identifies expert pattern recognition
Retrieval Practice Design	Expertise Studies	Structures practice for long-term retention
Error Diagnosis and Correction	Expertise Studies	Classifies errors for targeted improvement
Progressive Problem Complexity	Expertise Studies	Sequences difficulty for optimal learning

When you're dealing with interconnected components and emergent behavior.

Tool	Chapter	What it does
Stock-Flow Distinction	System Dynamics	Separates accumulations from rates
Feedback Loop Identification	System Dynamics	Maps reinforcing and balancing loops
Leverage Point Identification	System Dynamics	Finds high-impact intervention points
Degree Distribution Analysis	Network Science	Reveals network structure and vulnerabilities
Cascade and Percolation Dynamics	Network Science	Predicts how changes propagate

When you need to generate reliable evidence.

Tool	Chapter	What it does
Randomization	Experimental Design	Isolates causal effects
Statistical Power Analysis	Experimental Design	Sizes experiments for meaningful detection
Blinding	Experimental Design	Eliminates expectation effects
Pre-Registration and Transparency	Experimental Design	Prevents post-hoc rationalization

When you need to distribute limited resources effectively.

Tool	Chapter	What it does
Opportunity Cost	Core Economics	Evaluates trade-offs against next-best alternative
Marginal Thinking	Core Economics	Focuses on incremental changes
Diversification Logic	Portfolio Management	Reduces risk through uncorrelated positions
Bottleneck Identification (Theory of Constraints)	Operations Research	Finds binding limitations